Million-dollar single-family home sales in Hillsborough County rose 31.6% in September compared with a year earlier, according to Florida Realtors data compiled by Campagna Homes. Overall single-family sales in the county fell 7.4% over the same period.

The split tells the story playing out across Florida's housing market: wealthy cash buyers keep pushing the high end higher while mortgage rates above 7% squeeze everyone else.

In Hillsborough, 100 single-family homes sold for $1 million or more in September, up 32% from a year earlier, the Campagna report shows. The county's average sale price climbed 10.1% to $577,128. Its median price barely moved, slipping 1.3% to $419,450.

Pinellas County posted a similar pattern. Sales of $1 million or more rose 37.8%, while total closings dropped 9%.

Luxury builders bet on Lutz and Odessa

Local builders are responding. AR Homes by Custom Craft is constructing luxury inventory homes in Odessa and Lutz, the Laker/Lutz News reported in September. The projects include a 4,068-square-foot home in Odessa's Victoria Lakes community and a 3,824-square-foot home in Lutz's Skylake community, financed by more than $3.27 million in loans from American Momentum Bank.

Adam Smith, president of Custom Craft Homes, told the Laker/Lutz News that the company sees strong luxury demand in Tampa despite the broader slowdown.

Meanwhile, the Caspers Company has proposed Clay Hill, a 550-acre luxury retreat straddling the Pasco-Hernando county line that would include a 130-room resort, an equestrian center and up to 50 estate homes on one- to two-acre lots, Patch reported in August. About 330 of those acres sit in Pasco County.

Tampa ranks second in luxury price growth

A Redfin analysis covering the three months ending in July found Tampa luxury home prices rose 15.4% year over year, the second-largest increase among the 50 most populous U.S. metros. Miami led at 18%. Nationally, luxury prices rose 5.3%. Redfin defines luxury homes as those in the top 5% of a metro area's price range.

The Tampa metro's luxury median sale price was $1,644,824 during that period, according to a separate Redfin report. Non-luxury prices in Tampa were essentially flat, rising 0.3%, per the Redfin analysis.

The trend extends down the coast. Sarasota County recorded nine single-family sales of $10 million or more in the third quarter, up from one a year earlier, according to the Realtor Association of Sarasota and Manatee (RASM). The Business Observer first reported the spike. Cash purchases accounted for 37.6% of Sarasota County single-family sales during the quarter, RASM data shows.

Local values tell a different story

For Land O' Lakes homeowners, the picture looks nothing like the luxury headlines. The Zillow Home Value Index for Land O' Lakes stood at $415,364 as of September, down 2.4% year over year, according to Zillow. About 38.3% of active listings had taken a price cut, and the median time to go under contract was 47 days. Zillow classified the area as a buyer's market.

Odessa's median sale price sits around $545,000, above the Tampa metro average, with about 5.4 months of supply as of mid-2026, according to a market summary by agent Anne Bromberg.

Contract signings in Hillsborough fell 15.8% in September, the Campagna report noted, a sign that closings could stay soft through the fall for buyers who depend on financing.